Bank of America flags surprising iPhone 18 pre-order trend

The line outside a store tells you a lot about a product. The shipping date on a pre-order page tells you even more.

When buyers rush to reserve a gadget, delivery estimates slip by days or weeks. When they hold back, the product stays in stock and lands on your doorstep right away.

For years, Apple (AAPL) investors have treated those iPhone shipping estimates as the first real report card of the fall. A long wait usually signals that millions of people are willing to spend $1,000 or more on a new phone.

That report card matters to your portfolio because the iPhone still drives about half of Apple’s sales. When iPhone demand wobbles, the stock usually feels it.

This year’s test is tougher than usual. Apple raised prices on its newest Pro phones by $100, delayed its cheaper models to next year and asked foldable fans to wait until October.

Two days into pre-orders, one of Wall Street’s biggest banks checked the shipping dates, and the numbers look different from last year’s. Bank of America’s latest Apple research, dated Sept. 14, shows a trend that has analysts arguing about what comes next for the stock.

Why iPhone wait times matter for Apple stock

Apple sells new iPhones in stages. Pre-orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max opened Sept. 12, and the phones launch Sept. 18, according to MacRumors.

The gap between those dates is where analysts look for clues. When popular models sell out fast, delivery estimates stretch into October, and Wall Street reads that as strong demand.

The stakes are large. Apple posted fiscal third-quarter revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16% year over year, Apple confirmed.

iPhone sales rose 22% in that quarter, CNBC reported. The iPhone brought in $54.3 billion, roughly half of the company’s total.

This year, you’re paying more to upgrade. The iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199 and the Pro Max at $1,299, each $100 above last year’s prices.

Spread over a 24-month installment plan, that increase adds about $4.17 to your monthly bill.

Apple also reshaped the lineup. The base iPhone 18 and Air models moved to next year, and the foldable iPhone Duo opens for pre-orders Oct. 16 at a starting price of $1,999, according to MacRumors.

It’s also the first iPhone launch under CEO John Ternus, who succeeded Tim Cook on Sept. 1, Quartz noted. Ternus has pitched AI features as a fresh reason to upgrade, along with a new camera system.

“Variable aperture is an amazing technology,” Ternus told Tom’s Guide, describing the tiny blades that let the Pro’s main camera take in more light.

Bank of America found iPhone 18 Pro ship times running shorter than last year.

Bloomberg / Getty Images

Bank of America tracks shorter iPhone 18 Pro wait times

Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan and his team tracked ship dates on Apple’s website and on carrier sites.

As of Sept. 14, the global average wait for the iPhone 18 Pro was 14 days, compared with 18 days for the iPhone 17 Pro at the same point last year.

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The gap was wider for the bigger phone. The iPhone 18 Pro Max averaged an 18-day wait, down from 25 days a year earlier.

I lined up the bank’s historical chart, which goes back to the iPhone 11 in 2019. On this measure, the iPhone 18 Pro Max has the shortest early wait of any Pro Max since that first model, while the iPhone 18 Pro ties the iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro at 14 days.

China stood out. Wait times there were 11 days for the Pro, about a week shorter than other international markets, and 15 days for the Pro Max versus 25 days elsewhere.

If you’re shopping for one, the note offers a practical tip. Mohan’s team found better availability on U.S. carrier websites than on Apple’s own site, possibly because inventory is allocated differently.

iPhone 18 wait times at a glance

iPhone 18 Pro, global average: 14 days (iPhone 17 Pro: 18 days)
iPhone 18 Pro Max, global average: 18 days (iPhone 17 Pro Max: 25 days)
U.S.: Seven to nine days for the Pro, eight to 10 days for the Pro Max
China: 11 days for the Pro, 15 days for the Pro Max
Japan, U.K., Germany, France, and Australia: 18 days for the Pro, 25 days for the Pro Max
- Source: Bank of America Global Research, data as of Sept. 14

Why Bank of America says the iPhone 18 comparison is tricky

Shorter waits sound like weaker demand. Mohan argues this year’s comparison is “less apples-to-apples than in prior cycles,” and his note lays out several reasons.

Apple launched only its Pro models this fall, which changes where demand lands. Prices are higher, pre-orders moved from Friday to Saturday, and shoppers remain cautious about discretionary spending.

The biggest wild card is supply. If Apple built more phones and stocked more of them in stores before launch, your order ships sooner, even if just as many people are buying.

That’s why the bank treats wait times as a directional signal rather than a direct measure of demand. It reiterated its Buy rating anyway.

Jefferies reads the same data more cautiously. The firm sees no major change in how fast Apple is building Pro phones compared with last year, so it views shorter waits outside China and Hong Kong as a reliable sign of softer demand, according to Proactive.

JPMorgan analysts led by Samik Chatterjee found the shortfall was larger for the smaller Pro than for the Pro Max. The bank said some buyers may be holding out for the Duo, InvestorsHub indicated.

GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu called early wait times “lukewarm” and trimmed his Pro and Pro Max production estimate to 72 million units, MacRumors reported.

Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster sees momentum building instead. Average wait times across eight countries jumped to 2.6 weeks from 1.6 weeks in a single day, and rising lead times have “historically been a favorable sign for demand,” Munster wrote on X (the former Twitter), as Benzinga reported.

What the iPhone 18 data means for your Apple shares

Bank of America, which recently reset its Apple price target after the Duo launch, kept its Buy rating and $370 price objective. That target sat 11.4% above the stock’s $332.27 price when the note was published.

In dollar terms, a $10,000 stake would grow to about $11,140 if the shares reach that level. Apple closed at $331.34 on Sept. 15.

You’re paying a premium for that upside. Mohan’s target values Apple at 37 times his calendar 2027 earnings estimate of $9.98 a share, above the stock’s five-year range of 19 to 35 times.

He argues that the premium is justified by Apple’s opportunity in agentic AI, a multiyear upgrade cycle, its large cash balance, and room to expand into new markets.

The bank’s own model shows why the demand debate matters. It sees fiscal 2027 revenue climbing 12.2% to $535.3 billion, but earnings per share (EPS) rising just 6.9% to $9.46 as operating margin slips to 33.5% from 36.8%.

That EPS estimate sits below the Bloomberg consensus of $9.60. Even a bullish bank expects profit growth to cool next year.

Shareholder returns help cushion the wait. Bank of America models $100 billion in stock buybacks in fiscal 2027, while the 0.3% dividend yield pays roughly $30 a year on a $10,000 position.

The note also lists what could go wrong, including a weaker iPhone cycle if consumers pull back, slower services growth and execution problems with agentic Siri.

The next clues arrive quickly. Deliveries begin Sept. 18, when Jefferies expects resale prices to offer a clearer read, and Duo pre-orders open Oct. 16.

In my view, the direction of wait times over the next two weeks matters more than any single snapshot. If they stretch after launch day, the bulls get their proof.

If they shrink, expect tougher questions at Apple’s next earnings report, due in late October, about how many people will pay $1,199 for a phone.